By Adan Makina
Email: adan.makina@gmail.com


Peace is not a relationship of nations. It is a condition of mind brought about by a serenity of soul. Peace is not merely the absence of war. It is also a state of mind. Lasting peace can come only to peaceful people-Jawaharlal Nehru

There has been a beehive of military activity in Somalia for the past few weeks. According to media reports, the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) headed by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has been mobilizing thousands of militias loyal to his government and contingents of well-trained and well-armed troops who lately completed military training in various friendly African countries for a final onslaught against forces opposed to his administration.

Forces rivaling Somalia’s infant government include the theologically-driven Al-shabab supported by hundreds of foreign fighters. Al-shabab recently joined forces with the militia of Ras Kiamboni headed by hard-line Muslim cleric Sheikh Hassan Turki. Hizb-ul-Islam, a faction headed by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and funded, supported, and advised by the Government of Eritrea, has voiced its readiness to fight the Somali government should the initial clashes turn out to full scale war. Sheikh Aweys, a man who is culpable of genocide and other gross injustices committed against the Somali nation, is wanted in the West for crimes related to terrorism. Sheikh Hassan Turki is also wanted in west for his inclination to the dreaded Al-Qaida headed by Osama bin Laden.

Eritrea, a tiny nation in the Horn of Africa, has been undermining Somalia’s peace missions since 1991 when the central government in Mogadishu collapsed. The administration in Asmara remains person non grata from the Africa Union summits in Addis Ababa as evidenced by its lethargic absence for the last ten years. In addition, Eritrea has become a constant target of African Union condemnations because of its flagrant violation of peace and security in Somalia. At one time the BBC referred to Eritrea as the “region’s trouble-maker”.

Eritrea’s rebel-turned-president strongman Isaias Afewerki must be a hot-tempered man for going to war with Ethiopia, Yemen, Sudan, and Djibouti over flimsy issues in the past. Now that he has his soiled hands on Somalia-the same Somalia that provided him sanctuary during the reign of Major-General Mohamed Siyad Barre-many are pondering over the role he will play in the probable war between the TFG and the hard-line rebels.

According to the 2010 Economic Freedom Index (EFI), Eritrea’s economy is the world’s 4th least free and is ranked 45th out of the 46 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. It is ranked 176 out of 183 countries in the EFI. Such a poor nation, whose citizens have never seen a change of administration since gaining independence from Ethiopia in 1993, remains an obstacle to peace in Somalia simply because, its president, Isaias Afewerki wants to score points with the administration in Addis Ababa run by his cousin, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

Instead of embarking on nation building processes, President Afewerki is seemingly pleased seeing his cherished ideology of national destruction become his top priority. An isolationist who hardly travels, Eritrea’s Afewerki must be supervising the trenches currently being dug in Somalia for the much anticipated apocalypse.

Somalia media is now abuzz with the drumbeats of war with some web sites reporting that residents in some parts of the country witnessed foreign fighters fleeing the areas they previously frequented. These fighters have been mostly been impacted and frightened by the continuous flights of foreign reconnaissance planes that have been flying over Somali airspace for the past few weeks.

Somalia’s foreign fighters who have been drawn from all over the world have been providing defiant factions with military expertise, bomb making skills, intelligence gathering, and have been vanguards of targeted assassinations against high profiles and most importantly oversaw almost all suicide bombing operations. By fighting alongside the rebels, in return, these foreign fighters get the free will to marry Somali women of their choosing while enjoying unconditional protection from international manhunt and prosecution.

Though the exact figures of foreign fighters engaged in Somalia cannot be verified, intelligence sources estimate their number could range from 300 to 1200. Espousing Wahabi ideology, Al-shabab, the main faction that is behind the recruitment and sheltering of Somalia’s foreign fighters, has carried out sentences ranging from stoning to death for adulterers, whipping for fornicators, and firing squad for murderers-actions repudiated by learned Muslim scholars because such sentences can only be carried out by a legitimate sovereign head of state.

In any case, the head of the Somali nation has run out of patience with those wrecking devastation in his besieged nation. Sheikh Sharif began clasping his fists as a form of practicing pugilism and tightening his belt after his administration celebrated its first year in office. For the past year he has been globetrotting and seeking assurances and gathering support from friends and allies of Somalia.

Residents of Mogadishu reported seeing the young president fuming and clad in military fatigues and inspecting troops in their barracks-a sign the next few weeks will turn the tables upside down. The alternating interviews he gave to foreign and local media houses, the various communiqués he is said to have issued, and the movement of troops and hardware he is said to be overseeing should be enough to signal the end of a bleak era for Somalia and the start of peaceful reconstruction.

Ahl-sunna-wal-jama’a (ASWJ), the Sufi-led faction that controls the central regions and allied to the TFG, has its forces on high alert. ASWJ with support from Ethiopia could inflict devastating blows to Al-shabab and Hizb-ul-Islam forces fleeing to Ethiopia’s Somali region. The Government of Kenya, having amassed thousands of troops along its border with Somalia and having officially closed all border crossings, could act as a detriment to fleeing terrorists.

To the north, the tiny nation of Djibouti with support from French and American forces could deter fleeing rebel forces. Massive aerial bombardments by western powers will without an iota of doubt bring about shock and awe to the military installations of all rebels.

Those escaping in dilapidated dhows and headed for the Gulf of Aden could be blockaded by the combined international navies currently battling piracy along the coasts of Somalia. Such concerted efforts could usher in the defeat of international terrorism in the Horn of Africa and the formation of a stable Somali government based on peace, justice, and liberty.



By Adan Makina

Adan.makina@gmail.com




The opinions contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the editorial opinions of Banadir24 online